Possible scenario
Tariff Retaliation Returns
25% Chance
The administration may use the record deficit as justification for a renewed but legally narrower tariff push. Because the original Liberation Day duties were ruled illegal, officials are more likely to rely on Section 301, Section 232, or product-specific investigations than a sweeping repeat of the struck-down regime.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.5%
- Technology -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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