Policy Stalemate Persists

The most likely outcome is that the record non-Liberation Day deficit reinforces the political narrative that tariffs have not fixed the trade imbalance, but does not immediately produce a new policy regime. The May 2025 trade-court ruling and the mixed import data make broad unilateral action harder, keeping the administration focused on messaging, appeals, and narrower reviews.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.