Possible scenario
Growth Narrative Shifts
20% Chance
The deficit may be interpreted less as a tariff story and more as a drag on real GDP through net exports. Markets would then debate whether the import surge reflects resilient domestic demand or weaker external competitiveness.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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