Possible scenario
Legal Campaign Broadens
20% Chance
Israeli officials and aligned legal groups try to extend the campaign beyond the ICC by approaching European courts or national prosecutors. The probability of actual arrest-warrant action remains low, but the story gains diplomatic traction and keeps Turkey-Israel tensions in headlines.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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