Possible scenario
Fiscal Politics Fray
25% Chance
France’s funding shift becomes tied to doubts over whether the government can deliver its planned savings. After the 2024 budget no-confidence precedent, investors focus on parliamentary arithmetic and the risk of watered-down consolidation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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