Possible scenario
Negotiated Federal Protocol
30% Chance
The administration avoids a sweeping court order by issuing written protocols for ICE, DHS, and FBI conduct around voting locations. This is a realistic outcome because both sides may prefer clarity before early voting rather than a fast-moving constitutional fight.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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