Possible scenario
Federal Deployment Upheld
22% Chance
The court accepts DOJ's argument that federal agencies may assist election-integrity investigations if they do not directly block voting. This would embolden the administration's voter-list and immigration-check strategy and increase civil-rights groups' concerns about turnout effects.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Finance -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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