Possible scenario
Sanctions Retaliation Builds
20% Chance
Western governments treat the data-center campaign as an effort to degrade Ukraine's civilian digital infrastructure and move toward additional sanctions. The most likely measures are targeted at Russian military-linked technology procurement rather than broad energy restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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