Possible scenario
Fed Framework Overhaul
25% Chance
Warsh uses the speech to prepare markets for changes in how the Fed measures inflation, productivity, employment slack, and financial conditions in an AI-heavy economy. The near-term policy path is not clearly changed, but demand rises for better labor and price data.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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