Possible scenario
Taiwan-Korea Escalation
18% Chance
Kim's warning over Taiwan becomes part of a broader coordinated pressure campaign involving Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang. The most dangerous version links Chinese military activity near Taiwan with North Korean tests or border provocations, forcing U.S., Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese forces onto higher alert.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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