Possible scenario
Russia-North Korea Integration
27% Chance
The Russia-North Korea security relationship deepens in practical ways, building on the 2024 mutual defense pact and confirmed 2025 troop deployment. The most likely near-term steps are more ammunition, engineering units, intelligence cooperation, and technology transfers rather than an immediate new front.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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