Possible scenario
Inflation Fear Intensifies
15% Chance
Near-term data or coordinated Fed commentary makes Kashkari’s warning look more representative of the committee’s center of gravity. Markets price a longer tightening path, pressuring credit, equities, and rate-sensitive sectors.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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