Possible scenario
Data-Dependent Stasis
30% Chance
Investors conclude Kashkari’s remarks largely repeat the Fed’s existing message: inflation is still too high, but there is no commitment to a specific terminal rate. The immediate market reaction remains contained unless upcoming inflation or labor data shift the debate.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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