Possible scenario
Sustained Blockade Stalemate
30% Chance
Iran maintains that the strait is closed and uses mines, drones, and patrol boats to keep commercial traffic away without immediately triggering a full U.S. strike package. This produces a severe but still bounded supply shock as insurers, shipowners, and Gulf exporters suspend voyages.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +7.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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