Possible scenario
Direct Military Escalation
20% Chance
Washington concludes that the mining campaign is an armed attack on international commerce and launches limited strikes against IRGC naval assets, coastal radars, and mine-laying platforms. Iran then faces a choice between absorbing the blow or widening the conflict against Gulf bases and energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.