Possible scenario
Merger Closes Smoothly
45% Chance
The most likely path is completion of the agreed $601 million merger after routine shareholder, court, and Kurdistan Regional Government approvals. The March 2026 Baghdad-Erbil export restart reduces the key commercial uncertainty that blocked similar Kurdistan oil transactions in prior years.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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