Possible scenario
China-Brokered Deescalation
23% Chance
Xi Jinping's pressure on Trump to restore a JCPOA path becomes part of a wider deescalation package, with Oman and Qatar acting as channels. Iran uses the claim that the U.S. will not return to the Gulf as political cover to accept limited safe passage rather than a public retreat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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