Possible scenario
Practical Break Found
20% Chance
A less likely but higher-impact outcome is that an AI company demonstrates a practical attack against an older or poorly implemented cryptographic protocol. The market reaction is sharper if the affected protocol touches payments, crypto custody, cloud authentication or enterprise identity systems.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
- Finance -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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