Possible scenario
Trade Dispute Escalation
18% Chance
Ottawa responds to the market-share collapse with a formal USMCA challenge and potential countermeasures against U.S. auto policy. The dispute increases uncertainty for cross-border production networks but remains sector-specific rather than a broad macro shock.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Tickers
- GMM.USD-1.0%
- F-0.9%
- LNR+0.7%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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