Possible scenario
Negotiated USMCA Carveout
36% Chance
Washington and Ottawa reach a negotiated adjustment to the U.S. auto-content push, preventing an immediate collapse in Canadian-built vehicle access to U.S. buyers. The deal likely preserves some Canadian production while still nudging automakers toward higher U.S. content.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.2%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
Tickers
- MG+2.9%
- LNR+1.8%
- STLA+1.2%
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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