Possible scenario
Street Pressure Escalates
20% Chance
The Senate push becomes a mobilization tool for Bolsonaro supporters after his conviction and political ban. Protests increase pressure on senators, but they also raise the risk of clashes and a replay of fears linked to the January 2023 attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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