Possible scenario
Senate Opens Impeachment
35% Chance
The Bolsonaro-aligned right converts its larger Senate bloc into enough support to force a formal impeachment process against one or more Supreme Court justices. The most likely target is Alexandre de Moraes, whose role in election and coup-related cases made him the central adversary of Bolsonaro's PL party.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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