Possible scenario
Institutional Containment Holds
30% Chance
Senate leadership, centrist parties, state governors, and business groups prevent the impeachment push from reaching a decisive vote. This is plausible because removing a Supreme Court justice requires a high two-thirds threshold and would carry heavy reputational costs for moderates.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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