Possible scenario
Post-Midterm Strike Prep
15% Chance
Trump avoids combat before the midterms but preserves the option to strike afterward, especially given the October 9 reporting that Iran nuclear sites were added to U.S. strike plans. Markets price some risk that the statement is a timing pledge rather than a broader de-escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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