Possible scenario
Midterm Stand-Down Holds
55% Chance
Trump largely honors the stated expectation of no U.S. combat against Iran before the November 3 midterms. The administration relies on Treasury pressure, deterrent deployments, and public warnings rather than overt strikes, because a pre-election war would be politically costly and Congress has already shown resistance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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