Possible scenario
Economic Pressure Escalates
20% Chance
The administration substitutes financial pressure for combat, expanding Operation Economic Outcast against Iranian oil, shipping, banks, and procurement networks. This lets Trump look tough on Iran while avoiding a pre-midterm military clash.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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