Possible scenario
Military Escalation
22% Chance
Iran or IRGC-linked units continue targeting tankers despite payments, prompting a harder US and Gulf military response. The risk is high because toll collection does not resolve Iran's wider demand for US concessions and both sides are operating forces in close proximity.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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