Possible scenario
Military Escort Escalation
23% Chance
Washington concludes diplomacy alone is insufficient and forms a naval escort coalition with the UK, France, and Gulf partners. This improves the odds of some traffic moving but raises the probability of direct clashes with IRGC missile and drone units.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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