Possible scenario
Blockade Persists
27% Chance
Iran keeps the strait effectively closed while signaling that the blockade can end only after U.S. concessions. The UN demand raises diplomatic costs for Tehran, but without an immediate enforcement mechanism the market continues to price a material oil-supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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