Possible scenario
Washington Tightens Enforcement
20% Chance
U.S. officials treat the resignation and the reported sanctioned-sales dispute as evidence that Iranian oil networks remain vulnerable. Washington expands enforcement against Chinese buyers, tankers, and intermediaries, reinforcing the September blockade narrative.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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