Possible scenario
Split But Contained
28% Chance
The exclusion becomes a durable symbol of Republican factional division, but it does not meaningfully weaken the GOP’s structural advantage in Texas. Paxton leans on Trump, social conservatives and anti-establishment messaging to compensate for the loss of traditional donor support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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