Possible scenario
Donor Split Heals
32% Chance
Republican leaders decide that keeping the Texas Senate seat is more important than extending the Bush-Cornyn feud with Ken Paxton. Trump, the NRSC and Texas GOP intermediaries push major donors to resume support while allowing Bush and Cornyn to keep some distance publicly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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