Possible scenario
Democratic Opening Widens
25% Chance
Democrats successfully portray the fundraiser exclusion as evidence that Texas Republican elites doubt Paxton’s electability. The race becomes a nationalized Senate-control contest, attracting outside spending and more media scrutiny of Paxton’s legal and impeachment history.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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