Possible scenario
U.S. Military Escalation
27% Chance
The White House treats Iran's vow to bar enemies from Hormuz as evidence that deterrence has failed and authorizes direct strikes on Iranian coastal, drone, and radar assets. This is less likely than containment because of escalation risks, but the prior attacks on U.S. warships and ongoing blockade make it a realistic path.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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