Possible scenario
Managed Hormuz Blockade
38% Chance
Iran continues enforcing its Hormuz plan through selective interdictions, inspections, and threats against U.S.- and Israel-linked shipping rather than attempting a total physical closure. The U.S. Navy and Gulf partners avoid immediate large-scale strikes while prioritizing escorted lanes and defensive interception.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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