Possible scenario
Conditional Reopening
20% Chance
Iran uses the army chief's warning to strengthen its bargaining position rather than begin an all-out exclusion campaign. Oman, Qatar, and possibly the UN broker a temporary arrangement that permits verified commercial traffic while leaving the broader war unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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