Possible scenario
Negotiated De-escalation
20% Chance
Regional mediators move quickly to prevent a humanitarian collapse in Taiz from derailing wider Yemen diplomacy. Ansarallah may accept a localized pause if it preserves territorial gains while reducing the risk of renewed Saudi-led escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.