Possible scenario
Funding Stress Deepens
22% Chance
The proposed 10% yield proves insufficient for enough lenders given the scale of Anthropic's compute ambitions. Investors begin to treat the financing as evidence that frontier AI economics are becoming more dependent on expensive leverage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
- Finance -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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