Possible scenario
Regional Arms Race
30% Chance
North Korea is likely to frame South Korea's 3,000 km hypersonic capability as justification for further missile work after its recent Hwasong-11Ma test. China and Russia may criticize Seoul's range expansion, but the most probable near-term impact remains a contained regional risk premium rather than a global market shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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