Possible scenario
Republican Late Recovery
20% Chance
Republicans reassemble their usual coalitions in both states after national money, Trump-aligned turnout operations, and partisan polarization narrow the Democratic polling leads. This scenario treats the current polls as real but not durable enough to overcome the partisan lean of Texas and Alaska.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.