Possible scenario
Alaska Blue, Texas Red
34% Chance
Peltola converts her polling strength into a Senate win in Alaska, but Texas remains just out of reach for Democrats as Republican partisans consolidate behind Paxton. This is the most conventional split outcome because Alaska polling has shown Peltola at or above parity while Texas still has a stronger Republican baseline.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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