Possible scenario
Modest GOP Lift
35% Chance
The Tyson-Trump appearance gives Bruce Blakeman a short burst of earned media and helps energize Republican activists, but it does not fundamentally change the race. Democrats retain a polling advantage statewide because New York's partisan baseline remains difficult for the GOP.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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