Possible scenario
Deal Survives Senate Push
42% Chance
Trump keeps the Russian diesel arrangement in place, arguing that record $6.50 diesel prices justify a narrow sanctions carve-out. The twelve-senator letter increases political scrutiny but is not enough by itself to force a reversal without binding congressional action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.