Possible scenario
Deal Narrowed Or Delayed
28% Chance
The administration tries to preserve the diesel supply benefit while reducing the political cost of sanctions relief for Moscow. A capped or delayed waiver becomes the compromise most likely to satisfy a few swing senators without fully abandoning the policy.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- VLO-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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