Possible scenario
Congress Blocks Deal
20% Chance
The twelve-senator campaign expands into binding legislation that bars the use of sanctions waivers for Russian diesel imports. This outcome is less likely than compromise because it requires House coordination and enough Republican support to overcome Trump, but it is plausible given the bipartisan sensitivity around Russia sanctions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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