Possible scenario
Regional Military Escalation
25% Chance
Iranian attacks trigger a military response or a broader strike campaign against Gulf energy and shipping infrastructure. This is less likely than contained disruption, but the prior Strait of Hormuz closure and repeated tanker attacks make escalation a realistic near-term path.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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