Possible scenario
Naval Escort Stabilization
25% Chance
The United States, UAE and European partners move quickly to organize escorts, surveillance flights and exclusion zones around key approaches to Fujairah. This reduces immediate tanker cancellations, though the risk of a miscalculation remains high.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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