Possible scenario
Contained UAE Disruption
35% Chance
Iranian attacks continue to deter some tanker traffic, but damage remains concentrated around Fujairah and nearby Gulf of Oman approaches. UAE authorities keep the oil hub technically open, while shipowners, insurers and charterers impose case-by-case restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.