Possible scenario
Infrastructure Strikes Escalate
30% Chance
Russia treats the bridge defenses as a challenge and expands attacks on Kyiv transport infrastructure. The campaign remains within the existing Russia-Ukraine war but increases short-term geopolitical risk and adds pressure for Western air-defense deliveries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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