Possible scenario
Orderly AI Reset
35% Chance
The most likely path is a valuation reset rather than a collapse in AI infrastructure demand. Investors distinguish between stretched semiconductor multiples and still-growing spending by Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta on AI data centers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.4%
- Business Services +0.4%
Tickers
- +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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